While looking at the bowl match-ups, some of them seemed like bad match-ups, and also the SEC seemed to have easy match-ups across the board. For example, why wasn't Bama playing Baylor? So I reran my rankings, and generated the bowl match-ups:
Team 1 |
Team 1 Rank |
|
Team 2 |
Team 2 Rank |
Predicted Margin |
Colorado State |
80 |
/vs./ |
Washington State |
61 |
Washington State by 6 |
Fresno State |
17 |
/vs./ |
Southern California |
23 |
Fresno State by 3 |
Buffalo |
52 |
/vs./ |
San Diego State |
75 |
Buffalo by 5 |
Tulane |
67 |
/vs./ |
Louisiana-Lafayette |
63 |
Louisiana-Lafayette by 1 |
East Carolina |
35 |
/vs./ |
Ohio |
74 |
East Carolina by 10 |
Boise State |
46 |
/vs./ |
Oregon State |
68 |
Boise State by 4 |
Bowling Green State |
34 |
/vs./ |
Pittsburgh |
70 |
Bowling Green State by 9 |
Northern Illinois |
19 |
/vs./ |
Utah State |
53 |
Northern Illinois by 11 |
Marshall |
47 |
/vs./ |
Maryland |
56 |
Marshall by 2 |
Minnesota |
36 |
/vs./ |
Syracuse |
66 |
Minnesota by 8 |
Brigham Young |
30 |
/vs./ |
Washington |
26 |
Washington by 1 |
Notre Dame |
24 |
/vs./ |
Rutgers |
81 |
Notre Dame by 15 |
Cincinnati |
49 |
/vs./ |
North Carolina |
64 |
Cincinnati by 3 |
Louisville |
18 |
/vs./ |
Miami FL |
27 |
Louisville by 4 |
Kansas State |
48 |
/vs./ |
Michigan |
37 |
Michigan by 4 |
Middle Tennessee State |
62 |
/vs./ |
Navy |
51 |
Navy by 2 |
Georgia Tech |
60 |
/vs./ |
Mississippi |
40 |
Mississippi by 5 |
Oregon |
13 |
/vs./ |
Texas |
28 |
Oregon by 7 |
Arizona State |
9 |
/vs./ |
Texas Tech |
54 |
Arizona State by 15 |
Arizona |
41 |
/vs./ |
Boston College |
55 |
Arizona by 4 |
UCLA |
16 |
/vs./ |
Virginia Tech |
39 |
UCLA by 8 |
Mississippi State |
50 |
/vs./ |
Rice |
31 |
Rice by 6 |
Duke |
29 |
/vs./ |
Texas A&M |
25 |
Texas A&M by 1 |
Georgia |
22 |
/vs./ |
Nebraska |
42 |
Georgia by 5 |
North Texas |
44 |
/vs./ |
Nevada-Las Vegas |
73 |
North Texas by 6 |
South Carolina |
12 |
/vs./ |
Wisconsin |
21 |
South Carolina by 4 |
Iowa |
32 |
/vs./ |
Louisiana State |
20 |
Louisiana State by 5 |
Michigan State |
7 |
/vs./ |
Stanford |
4 |
Stanford by 2 |
Baylor |
3 |
/vs./ |
Central Florida |
14 |
Baylor by 7 |
Alabama |
5 |
/vs./ |
Oklahoma |
11 |
Alabama by 3 |
Missouri |
8 |
/vs./ |
Oklahoma State |
10 |
Missouri by 2 |
Clemson |
15 |
/vs./ |
Ohio State |
6 |
Ohio State by 5 |
Houston |
38 |
/vs./ |
Vanderbilt |
43 |
Houston by 1 |
Arkansas State |
65 |
/vs./ |
Ball State |
33 |
Ball State by 8 |
Florida State |
1 |
/vs./ |
Auburn |
2 |
Florida State by 1 |
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My predicted margin is simply the differences in my ranking factors multiplied by 20, which was an arbitrary number that made the margins seem realistic. You'll see that the SEC is indeed
favored in EVERY GAME except Vandy, Miss St, and Auburn. What that
means is that the SEC will go 7-3 or 8-2 in bowl games and everyone will
still concede that the SEC is the best conference. But it will warm my
Grinch heart if they go just 5-5. You'll also notice that Notre Dame is very heavily favored in what I found was a puzzling match-up against the lowest ranking team in a bowl, Rutgers at #81.
Penn St. was the highest ranking team (#45) not going to a bowl (ineligible), followed by Texas-San Antonio, Toledo, and W. Kentucky (#57-59, respectively), who are marching in the streets right now! The highest ranking 5-win team was Indiana, who had a big win against Penn St, and looked almost decent at times this year.
My overall rankings
are below. I realize that the format is less than desirable, but I
don't care enough about this to spend the time to write the HTML or look
into it. So this is what you get. |
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team |
teamconf |
Total |
SOS |
Rank |
Florida State |
ACC) |
1.290519 |
85 |
1 |
Auburn |
SEC) |
1.235572 |
13 |
2 |
Baylor |
Big 12) |
1.20023 |
59 |
3 |
Stanford |
Pac 12) |
1.147084 |
17 |
4 |
Alabama |
SEC) |
1.105492 |
65 |
5 |
Ohio State |
Big Ten) |
1.096835 |
64 |
6 |
Michigan State |
Big Ten) |
1.030932 |
76 |
7 |
Missouri |
SEC) |
1.030233 |
21 |
8 |
Arizona State |
Pac 12) |
0.973311 |
4 |
9 |
Oklahoma State |
Big 12) |
0.944364 |
46 |
10 |
Oklahoma |
Big 12) |
0.934291 |
54 |
11 |
South Carolina |
SEC) |
0.916229 |
25 |
12 |
Oregon |
Pac 12) |
0.910985 |
62 |
13 |
Central Florida |
American) |
0.870508 |
113 |
14 |
Clemson |
ACC) |
0.833313 |
38 |
15 |
UCLA |
Pac 12) |
0.786823 |
42 |
16 |
Fresno State |
MWC) |
0.776742 |
117 |
17 |
Louisville |
American) |
0.765355 |
123 |
18 |
Northern Illinois |
MAC) |
0.765267 |
125 |
19 |
Louisiana State |
SEC) |
0.726853 |
43 |
20 |
Wisconsin |
Big Ten) |
0.710639 |
51 |
21 |
Georgia |
SEC) |
0.621555 |
9 |
22 |
Southern California |
Pac 12) |
0.621467 |
41 |
23 |
Notre Dame |
Independent) |
0.590699 |
19 |
24 |
Texas A&M |
SEC) |
0.59053 |
16 |
25 |
Washington |
Pac 12) |
0.582241 |
23 |
26 |
Miami FL |
ACC) |
0.565296 |
68 |
27 |
Texas |
Big 12) |
0.53958 |
48 |
28 |
Duke |
ACC) |
0.520572 |
72 |
29 |
Brigham Young |
Independent) |
0.514771 |
35 |
30 |
Rice |
CUSA) |
0.510659 |
111 |
31 |
Iowa |
Big Ten) |
0.498482 |
30 |
32 |
Ball State |
MAC) |
0.483301 |
116 |
33 |
Bowling Green State |
MAC) |
0.479903 |
102 |
34 |
East Carolina |
CUSA) |
0.465065 |
120 |
35 |
Minnesota |
Big Ten) |
0.458071 |
39 |
36 |
Michigan |
Big Ten) |
0.454465 |
22 |
37 |
Houston |
American) |
0.396651 |
77 |
38 |
Virginia Tech |
ACC) |
0.395517 |
27 |
39 |
Mississippi |
SEC) |
0.390989 |
12 |
40 |
Arizona |
Pac 12) |
0.362104 |
28 |
41 |
Nebraska |
Big Ten) |
0.350662 |
66 |
42 |
Vanderbilt |
SEC) |
0.334523 |
73 |
43 |
North Texas |
CUSA) |
0.32124 |
109 |
44 |
Penn State |
Big Ten) |
0.310067 |
47 |
45 |
Boise State |
MWC) |
0.262635 |
104 |
46 |
Marshall |
CUSA) |
0.252551 |
106 |
47 |
Kansas State |
Big 12) |
0.244892 |
61 |
48 |
Cincinnati |
American) |
0.241309 |
122 |
49 |
Mississippi State |
SEC) |
0.234081 |
5 |
50 |
Navy |
Independent) |
0.221621 |
83 |
51 |
Buffalo |
MAC) |
0.210993 |
92 |
52 |
Utah State |
MWC) |
0.205791 |
88 |
53 |
Texas Tech |
Big 12) |
0.205361 |
55 |
54 |
Boston College |
ACC) |
0.180929 |
58 |
55 |
Maryland |
ACC) |
0.159098 |
96 |
56 |
Texas-San Antonio |
CUSA) |
0.157358 |
84 |
57 |
Toledo |
MAC) |
0.155459 |
67 |
58 |
Western Kentucky |
Sun Belt) |
0.154713 |
115 |
59 |
Georgia Tech |
ACC) |
0.14237 |
29 |
60 |
Washington State |
Pac 12) |
0.134075 |
14 |
61 |
Middle Tennessee State |
CUSA) |
0.131596 |
114 |
62 |
Louisiana-Lafayette |
Sun Belt) |
0.121814 |
119 |
63 |
North Carolina |
ACC) |
0.085647 |
50 |
64 |
Arkansas State |
Sun Belt) |
0.06148 |
89 |
65 |
Syracuse |
ACC) |
0.061125 |
34 |
66 |
Tulane |
CUSA) |
0.054913 |
90 |
67 |
Oregon State |
Pac 12) |
0.053885 |
44 |
68 |
Indiana |
Big Ten) |
0.048228 |
8 |
69 |
Pittsburgh |
ACC) |
0.031911 |
40 |
70 |
Tennessee |
SEC) |
0.02913 |
3 |
71 |
Utah |
Pac 12) |
0.026817 |
2 |
72 |
Nevada-Las Vegas |
MWC) |
0.024226 |
99 |
73 |
Ohio |
MAC) |
-0.03897 |
86 |
74 |
San Diego State |
MWC) |
-0.04081 |
105 |
75 |
San Jose State |
MWC) |
-0.04839 |
63 |
76 |
Louisiana-Monroe |
Sun Belt) |
-0.11026 |
71 |
77 |
South Alabama |
Sun Belt) |
-0.11672 |
100 |
78 |
Northwestern |
Big Ten) |
-0.11897 |
33 |
79 |
Colorado State |
MWC) |
-0.14847 |
121 |
80 |
Rutgers |
American) |
-0.17595 |
95 |
81 |
Troy |
Sun Belt) |
-0.18704 |
98 |
82 |
Florida Atlantic |
CUSA) |
-0.24505 |
110 |
83 |
Old Dominion |
Independent) |
-0.26144 |
82 |
84 |
Akron |
MAC) |
-0.27502 |
37 |
85 |
Florida |
SEC) |
-0.29913 |
11 |
86 |
Texas Christian |
Big 12) |
-0.30015 |
26 |
87 |
Central Michigan |
MAC) |
-0.32062 |
101 |
88 |
Texas State |
Sun Belt) |
-0.32657 |
124 |
89 |
Illinois |
Big Ten) |
-0.35637 |
18 |
90 |
Southern Methodist |
American) |
-0.36578 |
91 |
91 |
Nevada |
MWC) |
-0.37763 |
45 |
92 |
Wake Forest |
ACC) |
-0.4097 |
36 |
93 |
Colorado |
Pac 12) |
-0.42484 |
20 |
94 |
West Virginia |
Big 12) |
-0.42791 |
53 |
95 |
Arkansas |
SEC) |
-0.46152 |
15 |
96 |
Wyoming |
MWC) |
-0.47134 |
108 |
97 |
Kent |
MAC) |
-0.48539 |
49 |
98 |
Iowa State |
Big 12) |
-0.52377 |
24 |
99 |
North Carolina State |
ACC) |
-0.53298 |
32 |
100 |
Tulsa |
CUSA) |
-0.5747 |
60 |
101 |
Kansas |
Big 12) |
-0.60036 |
31 |
102 |
Memphis |
American) |
-0.69308 |
75 |
103 |
Kentucky |
SEC) |
-0.70542 |
7 |
104 |
Connecticut |
American) |
-0.72399 |
80 |
105 |
New Mexico |
MWC) |
-0.76112 |
107 |
106 |
Virginia |
ACC) |
-0.76881 |
10 |
107 |
Louisiana Tech |
CUSA) |
-0.79761 |
126 |
108 |
Purdue |
Big Ten) |
-0.82627 |
1 |
109 |
California |
Pac 12) |
-0.84678 |
6 |
110 |
Army |
Independent) |
-0.8496 |
118 |
111 |
Temple |
American) |
-0.88482 |
87 |
112 |
Alabama-Birmingham |
CUSA) |
-0.98886 |
79 |
113 |
Hawaii |
MWC) |
-1.0042 |
78 |
114 |
Eastern Michigan |
MAC) |
-1.01692 |
74 |
115 |
Texas-El Paso |
CUSA) |
-1.02847 |
112 |
116 |
South Florida |
American) |
-1.03204 |
52 |
117 |
Air Force |
MWC) |
-1.03486 |
93 |
118 |
Idaho |
Independent) |
-1.04587 |
56 |
119 |
New Mexico State |
Independent) |
-1.04624 |
81 |
120 |
Western Michigan |
MAC) |
-1.10643 |
70 |
121 |
Massachusetts |
MAC) |
-1.17977 |
57 |
122 |
Southern Mississippi |
CUSA) |
-1.22802 |
103 |
123 |
Florida International |
CUSA) |
-1.29919 |
94 |
124 |
Miami OH |
MAC) |
-1.4104 |
97 |
125 |
Georgia State |
Sun Belt) |
-1.53502 |
69 |
126 |
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As an FSU fan, I am concerned about their very weak schedule. Granted, they dominated pretty much everybody, but when your only real test was a clumsy Clemson team, I am worried about how prepared they are. Anyway, if Auburn wins, it won't matter how the rest of the SEC does, they will claim domination by their 10th national championship in the last 12 years (or whatever the actual statistic is).
ReplyDeleteDid you go back and see how accurate these predictions were? I just glanced at the BCS bowls and they were almost all upsets, save FSU-Auburn, though that was a nail biter. Fun season.
ReplyDelete