Friday, September 26, 2014

Kent's Week 5 Rankings

Enough games have been played to give me a decent amount of data to work with, so I'm releasing my rankings here:
The first thing you'll notice is that there are a bunch of unranked (AP poll) teams in there, and that BYU is 7th, and that Arizona is 9th, the highest unranked team.  Now, my algorithm weighs wins heaviest, but there is some strength of schedule involved, as you see that South Carolina is the only team that cracked the top 25 with a loss.  Keep in mind that the SOS is based on games played, not games scheduled.  BYU's SOS is pretty poor, but others' (Duke, Washington, Utah, etc) are even poorer.  Throughout the season, we'll see that BYU's SOS will stay pretty much the same and the aforementioned teams' will improve, meaning BYU will fall in the rankings.

At first glance, it's tempting to try and tweak my algorithm to more closely align with the perception that Duke and/or Utah don't deserve to be in the top 25.  And, perhaps, BYU doesn't deserve to be #1 if that's what happens if they win out and no one else is undefeated.  I don't believe BYU is the best team in the nation, and probably not the 7th best either, although I do believe that going undefeated will demonstrate a top 10 pedigree.   I will revisit that later, if need be.  But last year's results aligned pretty closely to the common perception of who was the best, so I'm sticking with it.  At any rate, it's early, there's still a lot of football to be played, and I don't think BYU's going undefeated.

By conference, much to my chagrin, the SEC has been winning their non-conf games and therefore, is justifiably the best.  I imagine these numbers will stay similar throughout the season, as most non-conference games have been played.










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