Friday, December 13, 2013

Updated Rankings - just in time for the bowl matchups!

While looking at the bowl match-ups, some of them seemed like bad match-ups, and also the SEC seemed to have easy match-ups across the board.  For example, why wasn't Bama playing Baylor?  So I reran my rankings, and generated the bowl match-ups:
 
Team 1 Team 1 Rank
Team 2 Team 2 Rank Predicted Margin
Colorado State 80 /vs./ Washington State 61 Washington State by 6
Fresno State 17 /vs./ Southern California 23 Fresno State by 3
Buffalo 52 /vs./ San Diego State 75 Buffalo by 5
Tulane 67 /vs./ Louisiana-Lafayette 63 Louisiana-Lafayette by 1
East Carolina 35 /vs./ Ohio 74 East Carolina by 10
Boise State 46 /vs./ Oregon State 68 Boise State by 4
Bowling Green State 34 /vs./ Pittsburgh 70 Bowling Green State by 9
Northern Illinois 19 /vs./ Utah State 53 Northern Illinois by 11
Marshall 47 /vs./ Maryland 56 Marshall by 2
Minnesota 36 /vs./ Syracuse 66 Minnesota by 8
Brigham Young 30 /vs./ Washington 26 Washington by 1
Notre Dame 24 /vs./ Rutgers 81 Notre Dame by 15
Cincinnati 49 /vs./ North Carolina 64 Cincinnati by 3
Louisville 18 /vs./ Miami FL 27 Louisville by 4
Kansas State 48 /vs./ Michigan 37 Michigan by 4
Middle Tennessee State 62 /vs./ Navy 51 Navy by 2
Georgia Tech 60 /vs./ Mississippi 40 Mississippi by 5
Oregon 13 /vs./ Texas 28 Oregon by 7
Arizona State 9 /vs./ Texas Tech 54 Arizona State by 15
Arizona 41 /vs./ Boston College 55 Arizona by 4
UCLA 16 /vs./ Virginia Tech 39 UCLA by 8
Mississippi State 50 /vs./ Rice 31 Rice by 6
Duke 29 /vs./ Texas A&M 25 Texas A&M by 1
Georgia 22 /vs./ Nebraska 42 Georgia by 5
North Texas 44 /vs./ Nevada-Las Vegas 73 North Texas by 6
South Carolina 12 /vs./ Wisconsin 21 South Carolina by 4
Iowa 32 /vs./ Louisiana State 20 Louisiana State by 5
Michigan State 7 /vs./ Stanford 4 Stanford by 2
Baylor 3 /vs./ Central Florida 14 Baylor by 7
Alabama 5 /vs./ Oklahoma 11 Alabama by 3
Missouri 8 /vs./ Oklahoma State 10 Missouri by 2
Clemson 15 /vs./ Ohio State 6 Ohio State by 5
Houston 38 /vs./ Vanderbilt 43 Houston by 1
Arkansas State 65 /vs./ Ball State 33 Ball State by 8
Florida State 1 /vs./ Auburn 2 Florida State by 1

















My predicted margin is simply the differences in my ranking factors multiplied by 20, which was an arbitrary number that made the margins seem realistic. You'll see that the SEC is indeed favored in EVERY GAME except Vandy, Miss St, and Auburn.  What that means is that the SEC will go 7-3 or 8-2 in bowl games and everyone will still concede that the SEC is the best conference.  But it will warm my Grinch heart if they go just 5-5.  You'll also notice that Notre Dame is very heavily favored in what I found was a puzzling match-up against the lowest ranking team in a bowl, Rutgers at #81.

Penn St. was the highest ranking team (#45) not going to a bowl (ineligible), followed by Texas-San Antonio, Toledo, and W. Kentucky (#57-59, respectively), who are marching in the streets right now!  The highest ranking 5-win team was Indiana, who had a big win against Penn St, and looked almost decent at times this year.


My overall rankings are below.  I realize that the format is less than desirable, but I don't care enough about this to spend the time to write the HTML or look into it.  So this is what you get.











team teamconf Total SOS Rank
Florida State ACC) 1.290519 85 1
Auburn SEC) 1.235572 13 2
Baylor Big 12) 1.20023 59 3
Stanford Pac 12) 1.147084 17 4
Alabama SEC) 1.105492 65 5
Ohio State Big Ten) 1.096835 64 6
Michigan State Big Ten) 1.030932 76 7
Missouri SEC) 1.030233 21 8
Arizona State Pac 12) 0.973311 4 9
Oklahoma State Big 12) 0.944364 46 10
Oklahoma Big 12) 0.934291 54 11
South Carolina SEC) 0.916229 25 12
Oregon Pac 12) 0.910985 62 13
Central Florida American) 0.870508 113 14
Clemson ACC) 0.833313 38 15
UCLA Pac 12) 0.786823 42 16
Fresno State MWC) 0.776742 117 17
Louisville American) 0.765355 123 18
Northern Illinois MAC) 0.765267 125 19
Louisiana State SEC) 0.726853 43 20
Wisconsin Big Ten) 0.710639 51 21
Georgia SEC) 0.621555 9 22
Southern California Pac 12) 0.621467 41 23
Notre Dame Independent) 0.590699 19 24
Texas A&M SEC) 0.59053 16 25
Washington Pac 12) 0.582241 23 26
Miami FL ACC) 0.565296 68 27
Texas Big 12) 0.53958 48 28
Duke ACC) 0.520572 72 29
Brigham Young Independent) 0.514771 35 30
Rice CUSA) 0.510659 111 31
Iowa Big Ten) 0.498482 30 32
Ball State MAC) 0.483301 116 33
Bowling Green State MAC) 0.479903 102 34
East Carolina CUSA) 0.465065 120 35
Minnesota Big Ten) 0.458071 39 36
Michigan Big Ten) 0.454465 22 37
Houston American) 0.396651 77 38
Virginia Tech ACC) 0.395517 27 39
Mississippi SEC) 0.390989 12 40
Arizona Pac 12) 0.362104 28 41
Nebraska Big Ten) 0.350662 66 42
Vanderbilt SEC) 0.334523 73 43
North Texas CUSA) 0.32124 109 44
Penn State Big Ten) 0.310067 47 45
Boise State MWC) 0.262635 104 46
Marshall CUSA) 0.252551 106 47
Kansas State Big 12) 0.244892 61 48
Cincinnati American) 0.241309 122 49
Mississippi State SEC) 0.234081 5 50
Navy Independent) 0.221621 83 51
Buffalo MAC) 0.210993 92 52
Utah State MWC) 0.205791 88 53
Texas Tech Big 12) 0.205361 55 54
Boston College ACC) 0.180929 58 55
Maryland ACC) 0.159098 96 56
Texas-San Antonio CUSA) 0.157358 84 57
Toledo MAC) 0.155459 67 58
Western Kentucky Sun Belt) 0.154713 115 59
Georgia Tech ACC) 0.14237 29 60
Washington State Pac 12) 0.134075 14 61
Middle Tennessee State CUSA) 0.131596 114 62
Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt) 0.121814 119 63
North Carolina ACC) 0.085647 50 64
Arkansas State Sun Belt) 0.06148 89 65
Syracuse ACC) 0.061125 34 66
Tulane CUSA) 0.054913 90 67
Oregon State Pac 12) 0.053885 44 68
Indiana Big Ten) 0.048228 8 69
Pittsburgh ACC) 0.031911 40 70
Tennessee SEC) 0.02913 3 71
Utah Pac 12) 0.026817 2 72
Nevada-Las Vegas MWC) 0.024226 99 73
Ohio MAC) -0.03897 86 74
San Diego State MWC) -0.04081 105 75
San Jose State MWC) -0.04839 63 76
Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt) -0.11026 71 77
South Alabama Sun Belt) -0.11672 100 78
Northwestern Big Ten) -0.11897 33 79
Colorado State MWC) -0.14847 121 80
Rutgers American) -0.17595 95 81
Troy Sun Belt) -0.18704 98 82
Florida Atlantic CUSA) -0.24505 110 83
Old Dominion Independent) -0.26144 82 84
Akron MAC) -0.27502 37 85
Florida SEC) -0.29913 11 86
Texas Christian Big 12) -0.30015 26 87
Central Michigan MAC) -0.32062 101 88
Texas State Sun Belt) -0.32657 124 89
Illinois Big Ten) -0.35637 18 90
Southern Methodist American) -0.36578 91 91
Nevada MWC) -0.37763 45 92
Wake Forest ACC) -0.4097 36 93
Colorado Pac 12) -0.42484 20 94
West Virginia Big 12) -0.42791 53 95
Arkansas SEC) -0.46152 15 96
Wyoming MWC) -0.47134 108 97
Kent MAC) -0.48539 49 98
Iowa State Big 12) -0.52377 24 99
North Carolina State ACC) -0.53298 32 100
Tulsa CUSA) -0.5747 60 101
Kansas Big 12) -0.60036 31 102
Memphis American) -0.69308 75 103
Kentucky SEC) -0.70542 7 104
Connecticut American) -0.72399 80 105
New Mexico MWC) -0.76112 107 106
Virginia ACC) -0.76881 10 107
Louisiana Tech CUSA) -0.79761 126 108
Purdue Big Ten) -0.82627 1 109
California Pac 12) -0.84678 6 110
Army Independent) -0.8496 118 111
Temple American) -0.88482 87 112
Alabama-Birmingham CUSA) -0.98886 79 113
Hawaii MWC) -1.0042 78 114
Eastern Michigan MAC) -1.01692 74 115
Texas-El Paso CUSA) -1.02847 112 116
South Florida American) -1.03204 52 117
Air Force MWC) -1.03486 93 118
Idaho Independent) -1.04587 56 119
New Mexico State Independent) -1.04624 81 120
Western Michigan MAC) -1.10643 70 121
Massachusetts MAC) -1.17977 57 122
Southern Mississippi CUSA) -1.22802 103 123
Florida International CUSA) -1.29919 94 124
Miami OH MAC) -1.4104 97 125
Georgia State Sun Belt) -1.53502 69 126

























































































































































































2 comments:

Pete said...

As an FSU fan, I am concerned about their very weak schedule. Granted, they dominated pretty much everybody, but when your only real test was a clumsy Clemson team, I am worried about how prepared they are. Anyway, if Auburn wins, it won't matter how the rest of the SEC does, they will claim domination by their 10th national championship in the last 12 years (or whatever the actual statistic is).

Pete said...

Did you go back and see how accurate these predictions were? I just glanced at the BCS bowls and they were almost all upsets, save FSU-Auburn, though that was a nail biter. Fun season.